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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a peace deal negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Several concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, US officials declined to give precise information regarding the likely contents of the security package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European nations issued a joint statement that troops from a “allied coalition” could “help with the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would constitute assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Kremlin Response and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would never accept troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, headed by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” commented Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.